Southern Media and Opinion Research has the first poll of the year for the Democrats’ biggest defensive target up in 2008, the Louisiana Senate seat held by Mary Landrieu. In a hypothetical matchup between Sen. Landrieu and recently-elected Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, they come up with this snapshot (Jan. 12-14, likely voters):
Mary Landrieu (D-Inc.): 53
Jay Dardenne (R): 38
MoE: ±4%
The poll also notes that Dardenne (who, at this point, is only one of several possible challengers to Landrieu) has a name-recognition of two-thirds in the state. It’s nice to see Landrieu in the lead, but this it’s still way too early to get a feel for this race. As the polling firm notes, on paper, Dardenne seems to be a fairly good challenger–already enjoying good statewide name recognition (but still with some room to grow), and 15 points is by no means an insurmountable gap at this stage in the game. Still, in light of all of the disastrous polls showing Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) trailing Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) in the 2007 Governor’s race by as much as 24 points, it’s nice to know that the state may not ready for a complete Democratic purge just yet. Republicans will still wisely throw everything that they have at this one, though.
(Hat-tip to rob.)
Race Tracker: LA-Sen
I have a dyed in the wool Republican sister who lives in New Orleans. The only politician she likes in Landreau. She has been very impressed with the way she went to the Netherlands to see how to protect the city. I was very surprised at her opinion, and very happy.
Given his base and his personality I think Dardenne is the best candidate the GOP could put forward (to the degree one can tell that now – who knows how things will look after this November’s elections). If Landrieu leads him by that much it suggests to me that she’s in a much better position to hold on to her seat than I’d feared.
about this polling group?
Landrieu definitely fared in the poll better than I would have thought. The Jindal-Blanco numbers last month had me very spooked.
Interestingly, while Dardenne “won” Secretary of State, he kinda won by acclamation. His Democratic opponent in the runoff withdrew after determining that Katrina-related displacement left him demographically crippled. So, basically, the 30% Dardenne (then a state senator) won in the first ballot gave him the office.
In other words, whether Landrieu faces Dardenne or Baker (or Jindal or someone else), she still won’t face anyone who has really, truly won statewide.
and 2006 Senate Election cycles – have similarities that neither Democratic Senate Seat is likely to go Republican
Landrieu(LA)who is the most vulnerable Democratic Senator is likely to get re-elected.
Democrats are likely to hold onto SD(Johnson if he runs or Herseth if the seat opens up.
Biden(DE),Durbin(IL),Kerry(MA),Levin(MI),Baucus(MT),Reed(RI),and Rockefeller(WV) are safe.
I expect Republicans to recruit top tier candidates in
Pryor(AR),Harkin(IA) and Lautenberg(NJ)but the Democratic incumbent is strong favored to hold on to those seats.
On the Republican side. One Republican held seat(the Open seat in Colorado(Allard)is likely to move to the Democratic column. (Mark Udall).
Other vulnerable Republican seats
Blue state Republicans
1)Collins(ME)- Tom Allen
2)Coleman(MN)- Mike Ciresi
3)Sununu(NH)- Steve Marchand
4)Smith(OR)- Ben Westlund
Collins(ME)and Smith(OR) survive. Coleman(MN)and Sununu(NH) both lose their re-election bids.
Senile Republicans
1)Domenici(NM)- Tom Udall
2)Warner(VA)- Mark Warner
Domenici(NM) loses- Warner(VA) narrowly holds on.
The Political Fax Weekly and Times Pic also reported a couple weeks ago that Landrieu’s statewide approval rating is 64 percent right now…
a difficult race, I also know she survived 2002, which many of us did not believe was possible given the onslaught all of us had to endure.